Amid nationwide protests rocking Kazakhstan this week—which have already resulted in bloodshed, political turmoil, and the end of former dictator Nursultan Nazarbayev’s cult of personality—the country is going through an unprecedented shift.
But as Kazakhstan continues to roil and as troops from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a Russian-led military alliance, flood the country to “stabilize” the situation, one potential outcome is suddenly very relevant yet still overlooked: state fracture. Specifically, the potential for a revanchist Russia to use Kazakhstan’s domestic turmoil as a pretext to seize a swath of northern Kazakhstan, which Russian nationalists have long coveted and ethnic Russian populations in the region have long toyed breaking off from.
See also: U.S. Closely Monitoring Deployment Of Troops From Russia-Led Security Bloc In Kazakhstan -State Dept